Thaum lub Peb Hlis Ntuj xyoo 2026, kev lag luam tshuaj lom neeg hauv tsev tau ntsib qhov kev hloov pauv tseem ceeb, uas qhia tus qauv ntawm "nce ntau dua li kev poob" nrog cov khoom lag luam tseem ceeb sib txawv. Qhov tseem ceeb ntawm kev tsav tsheb yog qhov kev pheej hmoo ntawm cov khoom lag luam thiab cov nqi nce ntxiv los ntawm qhov xwm txheej ntawm thaj chaw nyob hauv Middle East . 1
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Kev ua lag luam tsis ntev los no: Cov kev lag luam yav tom ntej thiab cov khw muag khoom tau txuas nrog, nrog kev nce ntxiv
Kev ua lag luam yav tom ntej tau ntsib tus qauv "cov menyuam coaster": Lub Peb Hlis 9th, vim qhov nce siab ntawm cov nqi roj thoob ntiaj teb thiab kev cuam tshuam ntawm kev xa khoom hauv Strait of Hormuz, cov ntawv cog lus tseem ceeb ntawm cov khoom siv hluav taws xob hauv tsev thiab cov khoom siv tshuaj lom neeg yav tom ntej tau pom ib nthwv dej ntawm 涨停 (涨停 txhais tau tias "tus nqi muag khoom" lossis "txuas ntxiv" rau hauv ib qho xwm txheej yav tom ntej ntawm Suav, nws lub siab txwv thiab nres nce). Ntau tshaj kaum ntau yam, suav nrog methanol, styrene, thiab ethylene glycol, mus txog lub 涨停. Txawm li cas los xij, nyob rau lub Peb Hlis 10, raws li cov nqi roj thoob ntiaj teb tau poob qis los ntawm lawv qhov siab tshaj plaws, lub zog thiab tshuaj lom neeg yav tom ntej tau poob qis, nrog rau cov roj ntsha tseem ceeb, methanol, thiab ethylene glycol ntawm lwm tus. Qhov no qhia tau hais tias kev xav ntawm kev lag luam yog qhov muaj txiaj ntsig zoo thiab hloov pauv sai sai nyob rau hauv luv luv - lub sij hawm stimulation . 2
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Lub khw muag khoom feem ntau tau nce siab, thiab cov nqi ntawm qee cov khoom lag luam tau nce ntau: Lub Peb Hlis 10th, ntawm cov khoom lag luam teev nyob rau hauv daim ntawv qhia kev hloov pauv, muaj 74 hom tshuaj uas tau nce piv rau lub hli dhau los. Ntawm lawv, 21 hom tau nce ntau dua 5%. Peb cov khoom lag luam nce siab tshaj plaws yog benzaldehyde (31.70%), PX (23.26%), thiab diethylene glycol (15.74%). Nyob rau tib lub sijhawm, vim yog tus nqi -push yam thiab kev cia siab ntawm cov khoom siv nruj, cov nqi ntawm ntau yam khoom xws li TDI, PX, ntshiab benzene, thiab phenol tau nce ntau dua 10% nyob rau lub sijhawm tsis ntev los no, nrog qee qhov ntau dua 20%. 1
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Kev saib xyuas ntxiv rau cov nyiaj: Kev ua tau zoo ntawm kev ua lag luam yav tom ntej tau raug xa mus rau A-kev ua lag luam sib koom. Raws li cua cov ntaub ntawv, raws li lub Peb Hlis 4th, cov tshuaj lom neeg yooj yim (Shenwan) index tau txais txiaj ntsig ntawm cov nyiaj tsis ntev los no . 1
Qhov tseem ceeb ntawm kev tsav tsheb: Cov khoom lag luam muaj kev pheej hmoo uas tau tsav los ntawm qhov xwm txheej hauv Middle East
Qhov laj thawj tseem ceeb rau qhov kev hloov pauv tsis ntev los no hauv kev ua lag luam yog nyob rau hauv qhov nce ntawm qhov xwm txheej geopolitical hauv Middle East. Nws qhov cuam tshuam rau lub ntiaj teb tshuaj lom neeg kev lag luam saw hlau feem ntau yog tshwm sim hauv cov hauv qab no:
Kev cuam tshuam kev thauj khoom tseem ceeb: Lub Strait ntawm Hormuz ua haujlwm ntau tshaj li ib feem peb ntawm kev lag luam roj thoob ntiaj teb. Qhov xwm txheej tsis txaus ntseeg tau ua rau muaj kev txo qis ntawm cov nkoj hla dhau los ntawm 138 hauv ib hnub rau tsuas yog 8, nrog rau 94% poob hauv kev tsheb. Qhov no tau cuam tshuam ncaj qha rau kev thauj mus los hauv hiav txwv ntawm cov roj crude, liquefied natural gas, thiab cov khoom siv tshuaj lom neeg. 3
Cov nqi raw khoom tau nce siab heev: Tus nqi roj av thoob ntiaj teb tau nce siab vim qhov no, thiab raws li "cov khoom siv" rau kev lag luam chemical, nws tus nqi nce ncaj qha nce cov nqi tsim khoom ntawm ntau cov khoom siv tshuaj lom neeg hauv qab no . 3
Qhov kev pheej hmoo ntawm "kev cuam tshuam ntawm cov khoom siv raw" tau nce ntxiv: Raws li lub ntiaj teb tus neeg xa khoom loj ntawm cov khoom siv tshuaj, Tuam Tshoj tau tshaj 50% ntawm nws cov khoom methanol thiab sulfur los ntawm Middle East thiab Iran. Kev cuam tshuam ntawm kev xa khoom tau ua rau ntau lub chaw tsim khoom hauv cov tebchaws Esxias los txiav txim siab txo lawv cov nqi khiav lag luam, thiab muaj kev pheej hmoo ntawm kev txiav txim siab tshem tawm cov khoom xa tuaj rau naphtha. Yog tias qhov chaw nres tsheb tseem raug kaw, cov khoom muag ntawm naphtha hauv Asia tej zaum yuav tag nrho tsis pub dhau plaub lub lis piam, yuam cov nroj tsuag tshuaj ntau dua kom txo qis kev tsim khoom lossis kaw . 1
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Cov tuam txhab ua lag luam tshaj tawm kev quab yuam majeure: Kev lag luam tshuaj lom neeg loj heev Wanhua Chemical, vim muaj kev cuam tshuam ntawm kev thauj mus los los ntawm qhov xwm txheej hauv Middle East, tau tshaj tawm rau lub Peb Hlis 7 tias nws yuav qhib lub zog majeure clause rau tag nrho nws cov khoom hauv Middle East lub teb chaws. Qhov kev txav no ua rau muaj kev cia siab ntxiv rau kev lag luam ntawm cov khoom tsis txaus. 3
Tus nqi sib txawv ntawm cov khoom siv tshuaj loj yog sib txawv.
Txawm hais tias kev ua lag luam tag nrho tau nce, tus nqi txav ntawm cov khoom sib txawv sib txawv vim yog cov khoom siv thiab kev xav tau:
Cov khoom tseem ceeb ntawm kev nce qib:
Phthalic anhydride, PX, diethylene glycol: Lawv ranked ntawm peb sab saum toj ntawm cov nqe lus ntawm kev nce thaum lub sij hawm saib xyuas nyob rau lub Peb Hlis 10th . 5
TDI (ib qho tseem ceeb raw khoom rau polyurethane): Vim lub zog majeure qhov teeb meem ntawm Wanhua Chemical thiab kev saib xyuas ntawm cov chaw tsim khoom, muaj kev cia siab ntawm kev lag luam nruj, thiab tus nqi tau nce siab. Cangzhou Dazhao tsa tus nqi them ntawm TDI rau 20,000 yuan ib tuj rau lub Peb Hlis 9th . 3
Graphite electrodes: Vim qhov nce ntxiv ntawm cov nqi ntawm cov khoom siv raw xws li roj av coke thiab rab koob -zoo li coke, kev lag luam tau txiav txim siab nce tus nqi sib npaug li 1,000 yuan ib tuj. 7
Cov khoom lag luam nrog kev poob qis:
Toluene, ntshiab benzene, phenol: Lawv nyob rau ntawm peb sab saum toj ntawm cov nqe lus ntawm kev poob qis thaum saib xyuas thaum Lub Peb Hlis 10th. Nws yog ib qho tsim nyog sau cia tias phenol tau ntsib kev nce siab txij li Lub Peb Hlis 1 txog rau 9th, tab sis tus nqi tau pom kev kho thaum Lub Peb Hlis 10, qhia txog qhov tsis muaj zog ntawm kev ua lag luam . 5
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Lithium carbonate: Tus nqi siv roj teeb - qib lithium carbonate poob los ntawm 7.51% txij lub Peb Hlis 1 txog rau 10th. Cov qauv no tsis sib xws rau cov khoom siv tshuaj lom neeg feem ntau, qhia txog kev ywj pheej ntawm nws txoj kev lag luam kev lag luam . 8